Everything in IT goes in cycles of incarnation: we centralise/distribute, we outsource/insource, we compress/expand – we create system after system and yet most still fail to understand that when the herd has charged in one direction the fortunes are won by running in the opposite one and setting up camp for when they charge back.
Of course this is not guaranteed – you may run back too soon, set up and starve before the mass return; or you may pick the wrong encampment.
I really wonder if Robert Scoble’s eulogy for the ‘common web’ is heartfelt, or whether he’s just bluffing the better for dramatic contrast for when he can announce that the herd have about-turned:
It’s too late.
I’m not going back to the open web. Why? The juice isn’t there.
So, what would I do now? What’s Dave Winer’s answer? He deleted his Facebook account and is working hard to try to get people to adopt RSS again. Sorry, Dave, but Twitter is a better place to get tech news. Not to mention that the best place to read that list is Flipboard on iOS.
Sorry, will RSS help me get new access to Google’s search engine? No.
Will RSS help me get access to Facebook’s Open Graph, which let Spotify share five billion songs in the first few months of its existence? No.
Will RSS help me get access to your Facebook news feed? No.
Will RSS help me get a better Klout score? No.
Will RSS help me get a speaking slot at O’Reilly’s conferences? No.
Will RSS help me talk with my wife, and her friends, who are all addicted to Facebook? No.
Will RSS let me get my photos onto Instagram? No.
Will RSS help me get my food consumption behaviors onto Foodspotting? No.
So, cry me a river. I’m a user. I tried to stick up for the common web in 2008. Where was the protest then? I was called an “edge case” and someone who should be ignored.
Sorry, Dave and John. It’s too late to put the genie back into the bottle.
See you on Google+.
Oh la la, everything’s gone
AOL and Myspace Google+ and Facebook, the death of the web is predicted and all blogs – micro and otherwise – will be subsumed into the formless grey mass of Corporations, Inc.
Nah – that’s bollocks, mate.
I don’t know what the next U-turn of the herd will entail, but on the basis of experiment – and some very hopeful observations about LTE/next generation phones – I am willing to bet that mobile will be the next centralisation, that we’ll be driving our online lives directly from our devices and that they will be directly reachable from whatever replaces the blogosphere; doubtless likely meshed to servers for backup and redundancy, but retaining primacy of control.
I’m sure Robert will be along promptly afterwards, to declare corporate data hosting an abomination and to lead the herd charging towards their phones…